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1/15/2007 - The Trend Watchers

From intimacy to transumerism, four experts weigh in on what consumers are up to this year

Toronto - January 15, 2007

In this week's edition of Marketing Magazine, "The Trend watchers" article features Shane Skillen - President of Hotspex - in a panel of four experts. The article aims to help marketers identify which trends to focus on in 2007.

Pop culture is more than just music and fashion. It's about how consumers work, play, shop and consume media in a world that no longer seems to have an off button. It's enough to keep marketers up 24/7 trying to figure out what's a legitimate trend worth capitalizing on and what's a fad that will disappear as quickly as (hopefully) Paris Hilton's music career. To ease your stress we asked four trend watchers what to look out for: Reinier Evers is founder of Trendwatching, a firm based in Amsterdam that tracks consumer trends; Laurie Mah is youth trends analyst at Youthography in Toronto; Shane Skillen is president of Hotspex, a market research consulting firm in Toronto; and Andy Nulman is president and CMO of Airborne Entertainment, a Montreal-based provider of mobile entertainment.

What big trend do you see for 2007?

Shane Skillen: The avalanche of user-generated content has rapidly created a free economy whereby people spend their free time creating assets (print, video, text, etc.) that others consume free of charge. Look for new revenue-sharing models where marketers who are looking to diversify from mainstream media (i.e. TV) will pay to have their brands featured in user-generated content such as video, podcasts and blogs. Chase your naked friend around with a lawn mover on video, post it on YouTube, and earn a quick fifty dollars and bragging rights.

Reinier Evers: In 2007, our main focus will be the status lifestyles, which is about the increasing ways consumers obtain status. The "tired" status symbols that have dominated our societies for so long (expensive cars, jewelry, fashion) are not going to disappear, but experienced consumers are looking for other ways to earn respect: from being creative to leading an eco-friendly life to living an online life. We'll see a lot of people (and thus marketers) questioning what constitutes status.

Laurie Mah: Philanthropy is the operative term for 2007. There will be more demand by youth for corporate social responsibility-in particular, among big brands with the big advertising bucks.

Nulman: Right now mobile is driven by people customizing their phones with ringtones and wallpaper, or playing shrunk-down versions of games that work better elsewhere in most cases. But the future is about utility, not frivolity. North Americans consider the mobile phone as "The Third Screen," or a mini-desktop. Actually, you will find it will be used more as a mouse, with the world as your desktop. We will soon be able to buy things, acquire important information and get instant access to places via the simple act of texting short codes. Don't think of your mobile as a phone; think of it as a remote control for life.

Anything else to keep an eye out for?

Mah: Watch for a consumer-led backlash against MySpace and YouTube as monetization becomes more important for these previously unencumbered sites. Since online technology is a two-way medium and allows brands, bands, work, entertainment and communication to co-exist, a 24/7 world of marketing becomes a terrifying reality. Nevertheless, the good marketing will rise to the top and the rest, well, it'll get lost in the clutter.

Skillen: I really like the notion of everything on demand across multiple platforms. I want my South Park on my computer, BlackBerry, iPod and TV. Apple is soon launching a device that easily hooks a computer up to a TV. The living room TV being connected to video content on the Internet will be a big deal. Watch for consoles (Xbox, PS3) and youth to accelerate this convergence as they teach their parents more about technology and how to stay "cool."

Nulman: Intimacy is something I see as a trend-perhaps as a backlash to the overabundance of choice. I truly believe in Newtonian physics in marketing-every action will be met with an equal and opposite reaction. And in an age where every bit of digital information and entertainment is available instantly, people will soon crave simple, face-to-face connections. The world may indeed be at our fingertips, but there are fewer "real" touchpoints to speak of. I have even gone so far as to proclaim "Intimacy is the next Google." I don't think it's too far off when people will pay for intelligent, one-on-one conversation the way they pay for sex today. And hey, I'm available...

Evers: There's something we call "transumerism," which is an ever-increasing obsession with the here and now, the need for fast and sometimes cheap thrills, undermining the perceived value of "fixed" goods and services. Transumers increasingly live a transient lifestyle, freeing themselves from the hassles of permanent ownership and possessions. The fixed is replaced by an obsession with the here and now, an ever-shorter satisfaction span, and a lust to collect as many experiences and stories as possible. Hey, the past is over and the future is uncertain, so all that remains is the present, living for the "now."

What was hot or overhyped in 2006 that's now so over?

Skillen: Super-hyped Sony PlayStation will fall to the mighty Super Mario and his magic mushrooms. Some analysts even think that in the next few years all of Sony could be facing a "game over."

Nulman: Three words: User. Generated. Content. Let's face it, most of that stuff is godawful. The universe of UGC can be likened to tossing a diamond into a cesspool-you have to dig deep, for a long time, and wade through a lot of rancid crap before you find something that sparkles. Yes, we all now have access to cameras, video and keyboards, but if I give you a paintbrush that doesn't automatically mean you're Rembrandt. Not that there haven't been surprises and breakouts, and I'm all for the democratization of the creative process, but "content" as a term is too generic, and frankly, users aren't always the best people to generate it.

Evers: I think many marketers confuse hot products with hot trends. The trends we track are never over, they always evolve into something else. That said, I think our "massclusivity" trend, about bringing luxury to the masses, is not only a given now, but is spurring new exclusivity trends. As more consumers have more money and gain access to a greater array of exclusive goods, the ways to stand out become more limited. Hence, there are many examples of absurd luxury popping up: $100-million mansions, private islands or clubs that won't accept anyone but the richest, most famous of the bunch. All of this will become somewhat tired.

Mah: We're so over celebrities who don't wear underwear when they get out of cars.

What should marketers be reading or watching to keep tabs on consumer and pop culture trends?

Skillen: For reading I'd suggest Business 2.0, Fast Company, Wired, and The Economist science and technology section. Online, use free Google e-mail news alerts to track news on your brand, your industry and trends you are interested in. Join the business social networking site Linkedin.com and watch YouTube and Digg.com to see what is floating to the top. Try to set up a personal media consumption strategy so you are not trying to consume too much, thus diluting everything you learn through information overload.

Mah: Speak to consumers as often as possible-it's nothing new, but something worth being reminded about.

Evers: They should 1: Devour trend sites and trend blogs like psfk.com; 2. Read about philosophy, architecture and psychology; 3. Read marketing and business sources from countries or regions other than the one they reside in. For instance, in Canada try reading Gulf Marketing Review, India Today and the Bangkok Post.

Nulman: The best thing for marketers to read and watch is people. In public. I learn way more at a mall, or at a concert, or just hanging out at a café than I do reading, and I do a heckuva lot of reading. People being themselves are the greatest focus group; they never lie, and what you learn from them is immediate and fresh. I always tell my staff to get the hell off the floor and get the hell out the door.

About Hotspex
Hotspex delivers provocative market research and innovation insights that help our clients to confidently make informed and inspired decisions. Our world class research solutions are distinguished through leading edge technology, proprietary consumer understanding methodologies and above all passionate employees that bring all this to life. www.hotspex.biz

Contact Information
Gera Nevolovich
416-487-5439 ext. 227
Email: Gera.N@hotspex.com